Hillary Hates Puppies and Other Cute Furry Animals!!!!!
I guess the good news – if there is any – is that 48 hours from now it will all be over. Except that it won’t be will it?
Regardless of who wins, we are set for at least four years of accusations and counter accusations, investigations, special prosecutors, faux outrage and a complete and ToTaL lack of civility and cooperation. Each side will blame the other and say, “See, I told you so!” Within each party, their various sects and wings will blame each other and chaos will reign. Lifelong friendships will end, and family members will refuse to speak to each other for months, if not years.
There will be both pearl clutching and popcorn munching. And almost no actual governing.
By this point in this grand adventure, the only way you could possibly have been surprised by FBI Director Comey’s announcement – on Sunday no less – that the FBI would not be bringing any charges against Hillary Clinton after the new eMails were found, would be if you haven’t been paying attention or you’ve been reading too many fake stories that match your confirmation bias. The FBI’s announcement – on a Sunday no less – was as predictable as a sunrise, and I guarantee by this time tomorrow it will be the talking point of talking points. Nothing to see here, keep moving, go vote for Hillary.
Like I said, the only people surprised by this are people who got their hopes up because they aren’t really paying attention to what is going on.
For months, pundits on the Right have been screeching that we must ignore the polls. But now that many if not most of the polls seems to show Trump pulling closer (which, by the by, was a predictable as a sunrise) we are told that the polls are good as gold. Personally I remain convinced that Clinton will win and win big. The polls showed Romney closing, and it came to nothing. In fact, it wasn’t even close.
I have two general problems with polls, and you may have noted that over the years – since 2010 – I basically ignore them. First, the polls rarely give us a full view of their methodology. We get the occasionally report of oversampling of one statistical group. And don’t kid yourselves, both side do it. Beyond that we rarely get a look at the mechanics of a given poll.
In 2010, Meg Whitman was supposedly with the margin of error of (and even leading at one point) Jerry Brown according to one major poll, Rasmussen. The GOP touted this and screamed to the heavens about it, ignoring every other major poll which showed that the race wasn’t within 10 points, let along the margin of error. So what was Rasmussen’s problem? Turned out – and we found this out later – they only sampled people with hard phone lines, no cell phones. And they compounded that error by not polling anybody except English speakers. Oddly enough, the demographic that only has home phones and speaks English seemed almost evenly split on Whitman and Brown. While everybody else in the State wasn’t quite as split about it. The methodology and mechanics are critical for a polls reliability. And the more it predicts what you wish would happen in the face of logic, the less believable it should be. Particularly if it doesn’t openly tell you how it is working.
Second, when it comes to the only national race we have, for President, too many polls tend to go with a generic “National Poll.” We don’t elect a President that way. If a national poll doesn’t segment the poll BY STATE, the way we actually vote for President, it’s absolutely meaningless. I personally ignore every poll that isn’t a State by State breakdown. Why? Because it’s utterly meaningless.
Which brings us to the “National Popular Vote” (NPV) movement, which seeks to change the way the States allocate their electoral votes, so that the winner of the Popular Votes get the Electoral votes as well and thus wins. Luminaries such as former Senator (and now deceased) Fred Thompson support this idea, which flies in the face of the whole reason that we even have an Electoral College in the first place. I could spend hours explaining it all, but others have already done so and in a much more eloquent manner than I would.
The main argument against the Electoral College is rooted in a lack of understanding. Also, the loser of an election ALWAYS whines about it, the winners never do. The bottom line is that EVERYBODY knows the rules going in, and what we saw this year for the first time in living memory was a reasonable – not probable but possible – discussion of what happens if no Candidate gets to 270. If nothing else, it forced people to think about it, perhaps study a little bit and learn something they didn’t know before. That is a small step in the right direction. Now we have to get people to understand WHY the Electoral College was the agreed upon method by the Framers. Then we might really make some progress.
Donald Trump was rushed off the stage by Secret Service agents on Friday in Nevada. Almost immediately the left began to report that “there was no weapon,” equating that with there was no threat. Of course if Hillary had been rushed off the stage in the same circumstance, we’d hear all about the crazy right wing nut job who threatened her. In any case, if there was “no threat” (and by the by the Secret Service COULD NOT POSSIBLY HAVE KNOWN THAT) why would they rush anybody off the stage? They have to assume the worst and the Secret Service did the right thing, albeit visually pretty clumsily. Now… rain on the other hand…
Okay folks, I’ve tried, I really have. You see a story like this online (Ants being Laced with Homosexual Chemtrails to bite Christians) and you don’t even think twice. You know it’s fake because it’s not reasonable or even possible. Maybe you see the humor in it, like a story from the Onion or my personal favorite, The DuffleBlog. You get that it’s funny. But somehow or another you don’t get that there are people out there, many of them in Greece, apparently, who think that it’s funny to get YOU to repost ridiculous made up stories about Trump or outrageous, but slightly believable because of your personal confirmation bias, stories about Hillary Clinton.
So let’s scenario this rosily for a moment. Even if Hillary Clinton is the cast iron cold as a witches tit bitch she’s portrayed as, she is also a consummate politician. How stupid would she have to be to say something so outrageously bad about the sitting First Lady IN AN eMAIL for f**k’s sake???? Knowing that if anybody ever read it that she would automatically lose a entire voting block? Whether you like her or not, folks, she’s just not that stupid.
If you cannot reason through that before you repost the meme about her eMail claiming Michelle Obama is a bitch and proclaiming her supporters to be ignoramuses, at least take the time to look for the source material. If you can’t find it, it’s because it ain’t there. Period. In the famous words of Lt. Danny Kaffey, “It doesn’t matter what I believe. It only matters what I can prove.”
Don’t we have enough real issues to be getting on with? Where are the posts about those?
By the by, has anybody noticed that we are at war again in Iraq? B-52 Bombers are flying sorties and dropping a bomb on the City of Mosul every eight minutes. Now the population of Mosul has fallen to around 650,000 people. If each bomb kills just one person, then over the course of the three days of bombing 540 people may have died in the wreckage of Mosul. With almost 6000 strikes on Mosul since 2014, the latest effort to dislodge ISIL from the city has ht a few snags. ISIL uses trenches of burning oil to obscure targets and recon flights, as well as using human shields. For a war that is “over,” according to the President, there sure seems to be a whole lot of police actions going on….
There are two kinds of people in the world: People who have cluttered desks and insanely organized people. Guess which one i am? It took me more than four hours this weekend to get through the pile down to the surface of my desk…
Posted on November 7, 2016, in 2016 Presidential, Article II, Constitution, Donald Trump, Elections, Hillary Clinton, Iraq War, War Powers Act and tagged 2016 Election, Clean Desks, Donald Tump, eMail Scandal, Fake Memes, FBI, Hillary Clinton, Iaq, ISIL, James Comey, Mosul, Polls, Secret Service, Trolls. Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.